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At first, Trump seemed to embrace a strong position on Ukraine. After delivering warnings of "significant repercussions" in August if Russia's president continued obstructing ceasefire discussions, he ultimately introduced major penalties on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This move seriously hindered the Russian leader's capacity to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

However, with his latest comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by both nations' diplomats without Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Favoring Aggression

This plan would in practice favor the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democracy in danger. Despite ringing statements that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal actually weaken that same independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his business past, Trump seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere land disagreement, like giving Russia a part of Ukrainian land will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not only about occupying a charred region of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's clear intention to weaken it so it no longer acts as an attractive standard for the Russian people of the responsible government that his deepening authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Giveaways

Although keeping in status the already split regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would compel the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk region. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unable to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defenses dangerously compromised.

The area is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified military defenses that constitute a essential impediment to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine leave these defenses, giving Russian forces a open way to the capital should he eventually choose to resume the war.

Military Limitations

Then, in a move that would make additional fighting more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to reduce the size of its troops from their current 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a maximum of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's plan imposes no equivalent restrictions on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's democratically elected administration as extremists, the plan declares: "Every extremist belief system and actions must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to highlight this point, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump sets no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the proposal has Russia promise not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its position of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". But given that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent accords in the history – including the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's borders in return for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a restoration of seized territory in the region to Ukrainian control – why should the international community have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on western protection assurances. While the plan warns of a "strong coordinated armed reaction" should the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details vary from unclear to troubling. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from replenishing his reduced military, rearming, and attacking again.

World Response

A separate parallel deal according to sources would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and continuous aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack endangering the peace and security of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. However different from a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best deterrent against renewed hostilities – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the commitment of alliance members, such as the US administration, to act with force to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not