Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.